- metadata: - source: https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/ - people: [[Jeremy R. Hammond]] > Please support independent journalism by [donating](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/donate/) to Jeremy R. Hammond --- # Negative COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in Children > ## Excerpt > Evidence indicates that “original antigenic sin” is a problem with COVID-19 vaccines, which helps explain observed negative vaccine effectiveness. --- Evidence indicates that “original antigenic sin” is a real problem with COVID-19 vaccines, which could help to explain observations of negative vaccine effectiveness in children. Two relatively recent studies along with data presented on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggest that the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in children is low to begin with and wanes rapidly to statistical insignificance. Moreover, the data is suggestive that vaccine effectiveness (VE) in children becomes _negative_ within several months since receipt of the second dose. Researchers from the New York State Department of Health published a [study](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454) on the preprint server _medRxiv_ on February 28 noting that the evidence for vaccine effectiveness in children, particularly those aged five to eleven, was “limited”. So, they aimed to provide data to inform policymaking. “During Omicron variant predominance,” the authors concluded, “VE against infection declined rapidly” for young children in the state of New York, “with low protection by one month following full-vaccination.” Comparing COVID-19 cases during January between unvaccinated and vaccinated children, they estimated initial vaccine effectiveness for children aged twelve to seventeen to be 76 percent, but this dropped to below 50 percent _after just five weeks_ since receipt of the second dose. Moreover, for young children (aged five to eleven), they observed a drop from 65 percent to just 12 percent after only one month. Thereafter, their estimate indicated significantly _negative_ effectiveness for this age group, as shown in Figure 2 of their paper: by 35 to 41 days, VE reached negative 10 percent, and by 42 to 48 days, it reached negative 41 percent. [](https://eadn-wc04-2733963.nxedge.io/cdn/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/negative-ve-1-1.jpg) The researchers also estimated vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization and concluded that, for adolescents, despite rapid loss of sterilizing immunity (meaning protection against infection), there was “sustained protection against severe disease.” However, it is arguable whether it is appropriate to describe this protection as “sustained” when it dropped from 94 percent to 73 percent after just two months. Additionally, for younger children, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization lost statistical significance within the same time frame. Curiously, the authors offered no comment about the observed negative effectiveness against infection for the latter age group in the main body of their paper; instead, they relegated their reaction to a footnote, stating that “Negative VE values observed in later timepoints likely reflect estimator instability and/or residual confounding, as opposed to true relatively-increased risk for those vaccinated.”[\[1\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn1) While it is possible that the observed negative effectiveness is a statistical artifact, as they suggest, the researchers’ assertion that this was “likely” is speculative. It is also possible that their data indicate a true detrimental effect of vaccinating young children. Specifically, their data might reflect the _opportunity cost_ of natural immunity. By making a choice to vaccinate an immunologically naive child, parents are choosing to forego the opportunity for that child to experience infection with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and hence to forego acquisition of natural immunity, which, [contrary to official disinformation from the CDC](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/02/10/the-cdc-finally-admits-that-natural-immunity-to-sars-cov-2-is-superior-to-the-immunity-induced-by-covid-19-vaccines/), [is superior to vaccine-induced immunity](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/natural-immunity-to-sars-cov-2/).[\[2\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn2) The latter interpretation of the data from New York is reinforced by data from a [study](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.7493) by CDC researchers published in _JAMA_ (the primary journal of the American Medical Association) on May 13, 2022. The key conclusion of that study was that, “Among children and adolescents, estimated VE for 2 doses of BNT162b2 \[the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine\] was modest and decreased rapidly.” The CDC authors, too, noted that, despite the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) having issued emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine for children aged five to eleven on October 29, 2021, and despite the CDC’s own recommendation for all eligible children to receive the shots, estimates of vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant, which [became predominant](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/omicron-now-the-dominant-us-covid-strain-at-73percent-of-cases.html) during December 2021, “are lacking”.[\[3\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn3) Relative to unvaccinated children, the CDC researchers estimated initial vaccine effectiveness for children aged five to eleven to be 60 percent; but within two months—the limit of the duration of follow-up for this age group—effectiveness dropped to just 29 percent. The authors concluded that, just as the FDA had authorized a booster dose for adolescents on January 5, 2022, due to rapidly waning immunity, “Booster doses may be needed to optimize protection against symptomatic infection with the Omicron variant in children 5 to 11 years old as well.” Curiously, the authors offer no comment in the paper—not even a footnote—about their data showing _negative_ vaccine effectiveness among children aged twelve to fifteen years by five months since receipt of the second dose. This negative effectiveness, which reached statistical significance at seven months post-vaccination (although climbing back to statistically insignificant negative VE at eight months) is illustrated in Figure 2 of their paper.[\[4\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn4) [](https://eadn-wc04-2733963.nxedge.io/cdn/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/negative-ve-2.jpg) Coupled with the data from New York, this suggests that, were observational follow-up to continue through seven months for the younger age group, negative effectiveness would be seen for this group, as well. In fact, [other data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status) show that COVID-19 case rates for children aged five to eleven have been _higher_ for vaccinated than unvaccinated children since mid-February. As of February 19, data presented on the “Rates of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status” page of the CDC’s website showed a case rate per 100,000 population of 132 for fully vaccinated compared to 121 for unvaccinated children. Since then, case rates have remained higher for fully vaccinated children. As of this writing, the case rate is 77 for the fully vaccinated versus 50 for the unvaccinated.[\[5\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn5) [](https://eadn-wc04-2733963.nxedge.io/cdn/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/case-rates-cdc-1.jpg) [](https://eadn-wc04-2733963.nxedge.io/cdn/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/case-rates-cdc-2.jpg) [](https://eadn-wc04-2733963.nxedge.io/cdn/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/case-rates-cdc-3.jpg) These data help to explain why the FDA [expanded](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-booster-dose) its emergency use authorization for a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine to children aged five to eleven on May 17. FDA Commissioner Robert M. Califf declared that a booster dose for this age group is “safe”, but the conclusion that the benefits outweigh the risks does not follow from the available data, which for the purpose of FDA authorization was limited to evaluation of data from an ongoing randomized controlled trial of _the antibody response_ to a booster shot—not actual vaccine efficacy—in just 67 children.[\[6\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn6) The non sequitur fallacy is particularly egregious given the perpetual failure of “public health” officials to consider natural immunity as an opportunity cost of vaccination. The need to do so is all the more urgent in light of the accumulating evidence [that vaccination results in](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.18.22271936) [a fixation of the immune system](https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2118946) [to respond suboptimally](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.08.491108) to “breakthrough” infection with SARS-CoV-2 relative to the immune response seen in individuals with natural immunity—a phenomenon known in the literature as “original antigenic sin”.[\[7\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn7) The recommendation for children to receive a booster shot to restore a higher level of protectiveness will also conveniently serve to help conceal the growing evidence that vaccination has a detrimental effect on children’s immune systems over the long-term—in keeping with the longstanding practice of “public health” officials [to try to vaccinate away any possible control group](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/product/the-war-on-informed-consent/).[\[8\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_edn8) ## References [\[1\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref1) Vajeera Dorabawila et al., “Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine among children 5-11 and 12-17 years in New York after the Emergence of the Omicron Variant”, _medRxiv_, February 28, 2022, [https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271454). A preprint study is one that has not yet been peer-reviewed. [\[2\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref2) Jeremy R. Hammond, “The CDC Finally Admits That Natural Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 Is Superior to the Immunity Induced by COVID-19 Vaccines”, _JeremyRHammond.com_, February 10, 2022, [https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/02/10/the-cdc-finally-admits-that-natural-immunity-to-sars-cov-2-is-superior-to-the-immunity-induced-by-covid-19-vaccines/](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/02/10/the-cdc-finally-admits-that-natural-immunity-to-sars-cov-2-is-superior-to-the-immunity-induced-by-covid-19-vaccines/). For much more discussion and documentation of the superiority of natural immunity, see my compilation of articles on the topic here: [https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/natural-immunity-to-sars-cov-2/](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/natural-immunity-to-sars-cov-2/). [\[3\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref3) Katherine E. Fleming-Dutra et al., “Association of Prior BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination With Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents During Omicron Predominance”, _JAMA_, May 13, 2022, [https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.7493](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.7493). Nate Rattner, “Omicron now the dominant U.S. Covid strain at 73% of cases, CDC data shows”, _CNBC_, December 20, 2021, [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/omicron-now-the-dominant-us-covid-strain-at-73percent-of-cases.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/omicron-now-the-dominant-us-covid-strain-at-73percent-of-cases.html). [\[4\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref4) Fleming-Dutra et al. [\[5\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref5) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Rates of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status”, _CDC.gov_, accessed June 10, 2022, [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status). [\[6\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref6) Food and Drug Administration, “Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Expands Eligibility for Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Dose to Children 5 through 11 Years”, _FDA.gov_, May 17, 2022, [https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-booster-dose](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-booster-dose). [\[7\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref7) Dean Follmann et al., “Anti-nucleocapsid antibodies following SARS-CoV-2 infection in the blinded phase of the mRNA-1273 Covid-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial”, _medRxiv_, April 19, 2022, [https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.18.22271936](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.18.22271936). Yair Goldberg et al., “Protection and Waning of Natural and Hybrid Immunity to SARS-CoV-2”, _New England Journal of Medicine_, June 9, 2022, [https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2118946](https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2118946). (See Figure 3.) Young-Jun Park et al., “Imprinted antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages”, _bioRxiv_, June 2, 2022, [https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.08.491108](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.05.08.491108). [\[8\]](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/2022/06/10/evidence-for-negative-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-in-children/#_ednref8) For a detailed discussion and extensive documentation of how the “public health” establishment has long sought to ensure that studies comparing health outcomes between fully vaccinated and completely unvaccinated children does not occur, see my book _The War on Informed Consent: The Persecution of Dr. Paul Thomas by the Oregon Medical Board_: [https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/product/the-war-on-informed-consent/](https://www.jeremyrhammond.com/product/the-war-on-informed-consent/).